基于GM-ANN模型的建筑物沉降量变化趋势预测方法

建筑物沉降观测结束之后,为降低和预防因地基不均匀沉降等因素造成的不安全事故发生率,准确预测建筑物沉降量变化趋势已引起相关科研单位的重视。首先,将人工神经网络数据分析与灰色GM(1,1)模型相结合,提出GM-ANN预测模型。然后,结合工程实例验证模型对监测沉降危险点数据变化的准确性,形成Matlab拟合曲线和预测趋势图。最终,结果表明仅考虑时间因素,GM-ANN模型明显优于灰色GM(1,1)模型,可使预测精度提高将近三倍。因此,利用GM-ANN预测模型可以对建筑物安全性进行有效预测。     

Nation‐building policies in Timor‐Leste: disaster risk reduction,including climate change adaptation

Few studies have explored the relationships between nation‐building, disaster risk reduction and climate change adaptation. Focusing on small island developing states, this paper examines nation‐building in Timor‐Leste, a small island developing state that recently achieved independence. Nation‐building in Timor‐Leste is explored in the context of disaster risk reduction, which necessarily includes climate change adaptation. The study presents a synopsis of Timor‐Leste's history and its nation‐building efforts as well as an overview of the state of knowledge of disaster risk reduction including climate change adaptation. It also offers an analysis of significant gaps and challenges in terms of vertical and horizontal governance, large donor presence, data availability and the integration of disaster risk reduction and climate change adaptation for nation‐building in Timor‐Leste. Relevant and applicable lessons are provided from other small island developing states to assist Timor‐Leste in identifying its own trajectory out of underdevelopment while it builds on existing strengths.     

节能视角下的泡沫混凝土外墙厚度选择及分析

该文以泡沫混凝土材料作为外墙自保温材料,结合武汉某住宅建筑实例,借助DeST-h能耗模拟软件,以未保温墙体作为基准模型,通过比较几组不同厚度的自保温墙体,以净现值为评价指标确定了泡沫混凝土自保温墙体的经济厚度;借用minitab16软件的曲线拟合功能,计算分析了泡沫混凝土自保温墙体的最佳经济厚度,为泡沫混凝土作为建筑节能墙体材料进一步发展提供指导性的意见.图2,表3,参7.     

城市住区空气负离子浓度时空变化及空气质量评价--以合肥市为例

以夏热冬冷地区合肥市为研究区域,从建筑布局、空间形态、建筑密度、交通路网、植物绿化等方面综合考虑城市住区的不同环境特征,选择12个样点进行实地观测,于2013年8至2014年1月进行了空气离子浓度、风速、温度、相对湿度等指标的实地测定,并对数据进行筛选分析得出结果,空气负离子浓度随季节变化较为明显,夏季最高,平均浓度约为358/cm3,秋季次之,平均浓度约为338/cm3,冬季最低,平均浓度约为322/cm3。总体看来,上午9：00─10：00和下午14：30─15：30区间空气负离子浓度最高,上午10：30和下午16：00─16：30区间空气负离子浓度相对较低。②自由式布局和具有较明显开敞空间的测试样点空气负离子浓度较高。夏季样点9空气负离子浓度最高,平均浓度为815/cm3;秋季样点12空气负离子浓度最高,平均浓度约为483/cm3;冬季样点9空气负离子浓度最高,平均浓度约为407/cm3。最后运用单极系数和安培空气质量评价指数对住区空气质量进行评价,得出住区环境的空气清洁度以允许和清洁为主,等级多分布在D级和B级。根据这些结果和分析得出以下结论：在不同的季节,住区室外环境的空气负离子浓度变化较为明显,夏季最高,冬季最低。②影响城市住区空气负离子浓度最主要气象因子是风速、温度和相对湿度,其中风速和温度与空气负离子浓度呈现出正相关,而相对湿度则总体趋势不明确。③采取层次丰富的植物结构有利于提高环境的空气负离子浓度。④空气负离子浓度与空气清洁度有着密切关系,不同的环境特征下空气清洁度存在差异。⑤以空气负离子浓度为参考标准指导并优化住区建筑布局,不仅有利于提高住区人居环境质量评价工作的科学管理水平,同时对于提高居民的健康水平和营造健康舒适的居住环境具有重要的?     

Free or low-cost geoinformatics for disaster management: Uses and availability issues

The disaster management applications of geographical information systems and remote sensing are examined relative to the disaster cycle, in pre-disaster, crisis and post-disaster contexts. We focus on the uses and limitations of free or low-cost data and software. A wide range of geospatial datasets are currently freely available, from digital elevation models (DEMs) and thematic digital maps, to multispectral satellite imagery and virtual globes, such as Bing Maps. Maps of hazardous terrain and vulnerable features can be derived from sets of satellite data such as shuttle radar topography mission DEMs and Landsat imagery. The derived maps are particularly useful for district scale (1:25 to 1:100 K) disaster management in low-income countries. Detailed maps (i.e. better than 1:25 K scale) of hazardous terrain and vulnerable features generally require expensive high-resolution satellite imagery or aerial photography.

Although the Internet allows the distribution of free or low-cost geospatial data, software and training materials, there are still some countries with limited Internet access. Data integration, spatial/temporal analysis and map production are also limited by the frequently high price of geoinformatic software, making it a priority to develop suitable Free and Open-Source Software.     

Disaster risk reduction and the evolution of physical development regulation

In 1984 the Mitigation Implementation Conference recognized the need for effective management of urban development in terms of building standards and land-use zonation. In the intervening 25 years, significant progress has been made in the development of building codes and hazard mapping for disaster risk reduction; however, the failure to promulgate, implement and enforce regulation of development has resulted in the dramatic expansion of exposure and risk. It is now necessary to re-assess regulatory policy and practice. New approaches to regulatory compliance must be explored, including participatory regulation and reliance on cultural and religious bases for individual commitment to community safety.     

Managing natural resources with eco-friendly technologies for sustainable rural development: a case of Garhwal Himalaya

Traditional Central Himalaya societies face a range of socio-economic and environmental problems. The potential of science and technology has not yet been adequately and appropriately harnessed to overcome the development constraints posed by the fragile Himalayan environment. Thus there is a need for large-scale establishment of technology resource centers. The Garhwal Unit of GB Pant Institute of Himalayan Environment and Development established rural technology demonstration and training centers in three different agroecological zones between 550 and 2200 m asl and in 13–15 locations, with suitable technologies based on appropriate use and management of locally available bio-resources that ensure people participation. About 35 on-site training courses were organised for about 2329 participants. The participants were given on-site demonstrations, training and technical know-how on various technologies, to enable farmers to better understand problems faced during implementation of new technologies for sustainable management of natural resources. An action research framework and training manuals were also developed in consideration of local socio-economic condition. The documentation and analysis of research (quantitative and qualitative) and data related to cost–benefit analysis of the technologies adopted by farmers generated through this study has created wider sharing of farmer training outputs, at farm level, amongst the scientific communities and with policy planners.     

Environmental protection by utilization of the slag from magnesium production in building materials

This paper presents the results of research on the utilization of slag produced as the waste material of metallic magnesium production. This material is a fine powder with a high magnesium content. The characterization of slag was performed by XRD, DTA and TG analysis. Chemical composition and mechanical properties of slag were also determined. By using a mixture this slag and limestone aggregate, it is possible to obtain dry mortar which, mixed with water, gives a material fully satisfying for plastering mortar. By adding inorganic pigments (Fe₂O₃, Ca₂O3, etc.) decorative mortars are obtained, and when they are spread over the foundation made of brick or concrete, they retain their colour on the entire coating and surface of the mortar.     

高层建筑人员竖向疏散途径选择特性调查研究

高层建筑人员竖向疏散途径选择与人的生理特征、文化背景、行为习惯等人员特征密切相关,因此开展针对我国高层建筑人员疏散途径选择特征的数据采集和分析工作十分重要。设计并开展了高层建筑竖向疏散途径选择的问卷调查。对人员在日常和紧急条件下高层建筑竖向疏散途径的选择进行了统计分析,分别针对距离因素、排队因素、群体因素影响的不同条件下人员选择电梯进行上下楼层的期望值进行了对比分析。利用Pearson相关性检验和多重对应分析方法,保障电梯疏散可行前提下,研究了人员性别、年龄、文化程度、职业、身型特征、生理和心理状态、日常行为习惯等人员特征因素和竖向疏散途径选择之间的相关关系。     

“绿色”滨江商务区建设思路初探以武汉市青山区滨江商务区为例

随着城市经济发展,城市空间结构改变,滨江地带的多功能、高密度开发成为必然趋势。滨江商务区的前期设计阶段既要重视其概念性城市设计和规划,又要有具体技术手段体现其“绿色”。以武汉市青山区滨江商务区为例,就如何体现“绿色”理念提出一些具体技术手段,为政府提供一些可供参考的建设思路。